Today is the start of the final quarter of 2024 and in business terms that means the firearms industry in a race to close out the year on a positive note…with positive sales. But this year has been rough. We were told it’s Bidenomics, but what most of the country has faced is something much different. Call it Joeflation.
Inflation, along with high interest rates, has put most of the country in a malaise. Not quite Jimmy Carter-style malaise but something certainly close enough that those who thought a Biden Administration would be an Obama third term have come to realize what we got instead was Carter’s second term.
In a slow economy with its reduced consumer buying power, manufacturers turn to one of two things – if not both – to weather the storm. They are, 1) releasing new products, which will sell at or about their suggested retail prices, or 2) run sales promotions.
Back in March of this year the National Association of Sporting Goods Wholesalers hosted a webinar about the demand forecast for 2024. The idea behind the webinar was (and still is) that you need a data-driven approach to your forecasting in order to get it right, or at least not make any big mistakes.
Without getting deep into the weeds on the complexities of forecasting, the industry still has to overcome some big negative issues like a rather miserable economy, increased household debt, increased credit card debt, and an overall reduction in disposable income due to inflation.
Throwing a huge curveball into all that was the initial assumption of a Trump/Biden election versus what turned into the current Trump/Harris race. Elections always have an impact on firearm sales as the Second Amendment gets treated like a piñata by, well, you know who.
In the midst of all this, manufacturers, distributors, and retailers are dealing with inventories they’d like to move before the end of the year. In others words, my friends, here come the sales promotions. Companies facing warehouses full of stagnant inventory and needing to make room for future products will find ways to sell off that inventory, often to the advantage of consumers who haven’t yet opened their wallets.
The final quarter of the calendar year is always the busiest sales period for the industry with sales increasing as we head towards Christmas. This year NASGW’s March forecast called for a handgun market that would be flat to down by 5%. Rifles up 5% to 7%. Shotguns up 3% to 5%. That put the overall firearms projection at a 2% to 5% increase. Ammo would be flat to down, mostly based on availability, while optics would be flat.
However….
Those numbers have changed dramatically in NASGW’s September 2024 revised summary forecast. Here are the highlights, or lowlights if you rather:
Handguns – Down 15% to 20%
Rifles – Flat to down 5%
Shotguns – Down 5% to 10%
Overall Firearms – Down 10% to 15%
Ammo – Down 5% to 8%
Optics – Down 5 % to 10%
Right now we’re seeing some of the major manufacturers releasing and shipping new products. As we head into the annual NASGW meeting in Kansas City, attendees will see still more new products, though many will likely scheduled for a January SHOT Show announcement.
For those companies not in a position to introduce and ship new products, sales promotions are the coin of the realm when it comes to juicing revenue as the year closes out. That makes this the ideal time to shop for a new gun, optic, or accessory that you may have been holding off buying.
Sales promotions are coming, and they’ll take several different forms from rebates to value-added package deals. These are all before the usual direct-to-consumer promotions we’ll see around Black Friday. You’ll also want to pay attention to companies running specials during Amazon’s Prime Days October 8 and 9. Those obviously won’t include firearms, but accessories and optics will certainly be on the deals menu.
If you happen to see a promotion that’s “extended by popular demand” you can probably guess that the demand wasn’t there for the product and the company still needs to clear inventory and bring in some revenue. With these companies and products, now will be the time to buy.
Regardless, we’re clearly in a buyers’ market so spend wisely…but spend.
Don’t make no sense. We keep hearing that more and more folk are buying guns due to deteriorating social norms and adversarial .gov policy.
So gun sales are going down at a time when more folk are buying guns.
Being married, I am used to living in a world of mutually exclusive truths. I would not have it any othe way